Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Forecast

Quick Introduction

Because low-oxygen waters impact fish and other marine animals, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science and partners are developing computer models to accurately predict when and where low-oxygen or "hypoxic" conditions may form. Their goal is to help anglers and others better plan on-the-water activities.

Part of the broader Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System, this product simulates dissolved-oxygen levels in the bottom waters of the Bay's main stem. It simulates 3 conditions:

  1. Nowcast: present-day levels of dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay
  2. 2-Day Forecast: levels of dissolved oxygen in the Bay 2 days from now, and
  3. Forecast Trend: difference between nowcast and forecast (% change over 2 days)

Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia forecast for Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

Difference From Long-Term Average

Current conditions are compared to the long-term average conditions to put current conditions in perspective relative to average conditions. Long-term average conditions were calculated using a computer model simulation spanning 1985 through 2023. The below map shows the difference between current conditions and the long-term average conditions on the day noted.For more information on the long-term averages please see the Chesapeake Atlas.